A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
